Bitcoin ETF Stability Signals Institutional Confidence as Volatility Hits Record Low

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has reached a significant milestone, recording its lowest volatility since inception with a 90-day rolling measure of 47.64. This unprecedented stability is attracting institutional investors, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that further reduces price swings. Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlights the transformative impact of this trend, noting that diminished volatility encourages risk-averse institutions to enter the market, which in turn stabilizes prices even more. "The thing with volatility is it can become self-fulfilling," Balchunas observed, suggesting that Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class is accelerating. As of July 2025, this development marks a pivotal moment in cryptocurrency adoption, demonstrating growing mainstream acceptance and potentially paving the way for broader institutional participation in digital asset markets.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Hits Record Low Volatility, Attracts Institutional Inflows

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has achieved its lowest volatility since inception, with a 90-day rolling measure of 47.64. Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas notes this stability creates a self-reinforcing cycle: as price swings diminish, risk-averse institutions enter, further dampening volatility. "The thing with volatility is it can become self-fulfilling," Balchunas observed, attributing the trend to growing participation from traditional investors seeking 'digital gold' rather than speculative tech plays.

The fund has drawn $49 billion in net inflows since January 2024, dwarfing the $12 billion attracted by Fidelity's competing product. This divergence highlights Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class, with institutional vehicles like IBIT increasingly serving as the preferred gateway for mainstream capital.

Bitcoin's Current Bull Market Shows Unprecedented Stability Compared to Previous Cycles

Bitcoin's latest bull run, which began in early 2023, is demonstrating remarkable resilience with significantly lower volatility than previous cycles. Three-month realized volatility has averaged below 50%, a stark contrast to the 80%-100% swings seen in 2017 and 2020-21.

The BVIV index's declining 30-day implied volatility suggests traders anticipate continued price stability. This maturation reflects Bitcoin's $2 trillion market cap - now ranking as the world's 7th largest asset - which requires substantially more capital to MOVE markets.

Institutional participation through ETFs and derivatives appears to be damping volatility while cementing Bitcoin's position in mainstream finance. As Glassnode notes: "Liquidity depth at this scale changes the fundamental market dynamics."

Trump Sons Predict Bitcoin Price Will Reach $170K by 2026

Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump made waves at the 2025 bitcoin conference in Las Vegas with their bullish projections for the cryptocurrency. The brothers, speaking on a panel, outlined a vision of Bitcoin's future that captured the attention of attendees and investors alike.

Donald TRUMP Jr. offered a specific price target, predicting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $175,000 by 2026. His brother Eric took a more exuberant stance, suggesting the digital asset might "go to the moon" as early as next year.

The Trump family's engagement with Bitcoin appears deeply influenced by MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor. The executive reportedly encouraged substantial Bitcoin investments, even proposing the mortgage of the family's Mar-a-Lago resort to fund purchases. This advice seems to have taken root - Trump Media recently announced a $2.5 billion initiative to establish a Bitcoin treasury.

Eric Trump didn't mince words about traditional finance, calling the banking system "corrupt" after experiencing debanking. His venture, American Bitcoin, is preparing to go public, further cementing the family's commitment to cryptocurrency.

Massive Outflow Hits Bitcoin ETFs with a $358.6 Million Exit

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw a net outflow of $358.6 million, ending a 10-day streak of inflows. This marks the largest capital withdrawal since mid-March. BlackRock's IBIT was the sole ETF to attract fresh capital, with $125 million in inflows, while others faced significant outflows. Fidelity's FBTC led the exodus with $166.32 million, followed by Grayscale's GBTC at $107.53 million. Ark and 21Shares' ARKB and Bitwise's BITB also saw substantial outflows.

The outflow partially erased the momentum from a recent 10-day rally, which had accumulated $4.26 billion in inflows. Cumulative net inflows dropped from $45.34 billion to $44.99 billion. Despite the setback, IBIT accounted for 96% of the inflows during the 10-day streak.

Samourai Wallet Challenges DOJ Case, Citing FinCEN's Non-Custodial Stance

Samourai Wallet's co-founders, Keonne Rodriguez and William Hill, have filed a motion to dismiss the U.S. Department of Justice's criminal charges against them. The indictment alleges operation of an unlicensed money transmitting business and conspiracy to commit money laundering. The defense argues that the DOJ's case contradicts longstanding FinCEN guidance, which exempts non-custodial privacy tools like Samourai from money transmitter regulations.

The legal battle hinges on the distinction between custodial services and non-custodial software. Samourai Wallet, a Bitcoin privacy app, never controlled user funds but facilitated CoinJoin transactions to enhance transaction privacy. The motion emphasizes that users retained full control of their crypto assets throughout the process.

This case could set a precedent for how regulators treat open-source privacy tools in the cryptocurrency space. A dismissal WOULD reinforce FinCEN's existing framework, while a conviction might criminalize basic privacy-enhancing technologies.

Michael Saylor Details MicroStrategy's Bitcoin-Centric Bear Market Strategy

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor outlined the company's defensive playbook during a bear market scenario at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Las Vegas. When questioned about potential declines in the company's multiple to net asset value ratio, Saylor drew sharp contrasts with passive Bitcoin vehicles like GBTC, emphasizing MicroStrategy's operational flexibility as a corporate entity.

"GBTC is a closed-end trust with no ability to manage its capital structure," Saylor stated, positioning MicroStrategy as an active capital allocator capable of debt issuance and strategic repurchases. The executive framed sub-1x mNAV scenarios as failures of shareholder confidence rather than fundamental valuation issues.

The company maintains multiple liquidity channels including at-the-market offerings across capital markets. "What makes us formidable is having ATMs in multiple markets," Saylor noted, highlighting the firm's ability to pivot between equity, debt, and hybrid instruments to support its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.